INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIVES: PREDICTING, PERSISTENCE, AND DISAGREEMENT

Sidney Martins Caetano, Geraldo Edmundo Silva Júnior

Resumo


Because the expectations of inflation are considered a key-variable in the specification of macroeconomic models and due to the current discussion in literature on the disagreement concerning expectations, the present work aimed to study the divergence problem, starting from the statistical verification of the superior predicting ability of institutions that take part in the research (Focus- Market Report) of the Gerin/Bacen. The application of the SPA test, in short and long term analyses, suggested strength in the disagreement in the expectations of inflation, in which some models/institutions exert superior predicting ability. It is also possible to observe the presence of some degree of inertia in the dynamics of the expectations, in which the measures of persistence suggest sharp shock effects that diminish as time passes, in most of the cases analyzed.

Palavras-chave


Inflation; Expectations; Monetary policy

Texto completo:

PDF


DOI: https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.17190



 
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Indexadores


 PROPESQ  PROPESQ PROPESQ   PROPESQ      PERIÓDICOS UFRGS


 
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas
Revista Análise Econômica
ISSN 0102-9924 / e-ISSN 2176-5456